China: First Quarter Economic Growth to Exceed 20% from Year 2020

It’s amazing how they manage to keep saying “second largest economy.”


China’s first quarter growth figures this year could exceed 20 per cent from a year earlier, a record high that offers fresh evidence of the robust rebound in the world’s second largest economy and its central position in driving the global recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

The rate of gross domestic product (GDP) expansion for the January-March period is expected to be the fastest in decades, analysts said, though the figure will be coming off a low comparison base, following a 6.8 per cent contraction in the first three months of 2020.

The growth rate is also expected to be this year’s peak, as China’s economic engine cools and other major economies like the United States roar back to life. Moreover, the unbalanced nature of China’s recovery – which has been dependent on exports and state-led investment – remains at risk, analysts have warned.

Song Xuetao, head of the macro research division at Tianfeng Securities, estimated that first quarter GDP growth would jump to 20.5 per cent from a year ago, following disruptions due to the pandemic early in 2020 and a cold winter.

Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist at Ping An Securities, forecast earlier this month a 21 per cent growth rate, since both production and consumer demand were gaining steam.

At a meeting last week attended by Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, Peng Wensheng, chief economist at prominent investment bank China International Capital Corporation, said the Chinese economy would grow by 19 per cent in the first three months of the year, the same forecast made by analytics firm IHS Markit in a note on April 9.

Whatever the figure, it is certain to be the highest quarterly growth rate since data first began being published in 1993.


I guess there’s a lot of money to be made while the world is in a state of panic, and you’re just chillin’.